In global polling about 12 million people believe that shape shifting reptile people take on human form, gain political power, and control society. Another 12 million people “aren’t sure” about this. Or would you believe that a rogue element of the British Secret Intelligence Service arranged the killing of Princess Diana at the behest of the British royal family? Those are just two of the documented conspiracy theories circulating pertaining to the 20^th and 21^st centuries. A few more include…..

• Roughly half the American people believe the U.S. government is hiding the truth about 9/11.
• All National Football League games are scripted with pre-determined outcomes.
• Pop star April Lavigne secretly died in 2003 after her debut album and was replaced by a body double named Melissa Vandella. Vandella has subsequently recorded and performed all of Lavigne’s songs since.
• The Democrats are running a pedophile ring out of a hole-in-the-wall pizza parlor in Washington D.C. (“Pizzagate”).
• A theory in Brazil says the U.S. military planned an invasion of the Amazon rain forest to take control of the territory and its natural resources. Also, secret military maps showing the Amazon as part of the U.S. mistakenly appeared in thousands of U.S. high school textbooks that subsequently had to be confiscated by government agents and destroyed. [Hmm, perhaps not so far-fetched today?]

     Conspiracy theories have been with us practically since the beginning of human history.  Originally many were religiously motivated – tools in ancient fights among Catholics, Protestants, Jews, Orthodox, and Muslims for adherents and influence.  Not long after, political interests weaponized conspiracy theories as tools in elections and rivalries, something that’s been with us ever since. Conspiracy theories can also be fun – harmless distractions for people. But depending on their nature and the size of their following, they can become destructive, destabilizing, and cruel.

     I teach the history of conspiracy theories to high school students, and a large body of academic research exists on the history, methods, and context of these theories. Amidst the interesting times we live in today, I thought I would share some of what I’ve learned about conspiracy theories: the definition of a conspiracy theory; their general characteristics; why people spread them; the “recipe” for a good conspiracy theory; and the kinds of people who are more susceptible to believing these theories.    

     A conspiracy theory is different than an actual criminal conspiracy. In that instance persons have been charged with the crime of conspiracy and subsequently pled or been found guilty in the courts. Conspiracy theories are alleged but not proven. Other definitions include, …”A strong belief that a secret, omnipotent individual or group covertly controls some of or all of the social and political order.” Similarly, …”A proposed plot by powerful people or organizations working together and in secret to accomplish a usually sinister goal that is notoriously resistant to falsification. New layers of conspiracy are then added to rationalize each new disconfirming piece of evidence.”

     Conspiracy theories permeate all parts of American society (and other nations too), cutting across gender, age, race, income, educational, and occupational status. Some evidence exists that those with a college degrees and higher incomes are less inclined to believe or traffic in these theories than others. Yet still, 30% of people with undergraduate degrees and 20% of those with graduate degrees show a high predisposition for believing in conspiracies.

     Conspiracy theories are rooted in economic, class, status, religious, political, and frivolous issues. The internet and social media are huge enablers of these theories; one observer called the internet a “petri dish” for conspiracy theories. The Freedom of Information Act, passed in 1966, also provided conspiracy fuel, allowing people to request government documents to both “discover” and “prove” their hypotheses. Originally many conspiracy theories focused on alleged sinister acts by other countries against the United States or the American people. But since the 20^th century, most American conspiracy theories allege wrongdoing by the U.S. government and/or large corporate interests.

     This is because that while the U.S. government and corporations have done and do many good things, there has also been lots of wrongdoing. Hence the view, “Well if the government did that, why is it so hard to believe they’re not doing this?” On the government side we have seen the following: Woodrow Wilson serving much of his second term incapacitated by a stroke, effectively leaving his wife and others in charge; bad acts committed by Republicans and the FBI during the Red Scare in the 1950s; the Johnson and Nixon Administrations’ years of lying about the Vietnam War; Watergate; the Iran-Contra scandal; and the fictitious claim in the George W. Bush administration that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and thus needed to be invaded. Most recently, though not yet proven, there are claims that Joe Biden spent the second half of his presidency meaningfully disabled and that his closest advisors abetted the deception and allowed him to keep serving. On the corporate side, there is of course Enron and also various other scandals over the years.

     People create and spread the most destructive conspiracy theories for political and economic reasons. The win-at-all-costs, serial lying, blood sport nature of politics leads partisans to use them to damage rivals. Greed also features, as it often does when unsavory things happen. Perhaps the most infamous recent example of this is Alex Jones and his Info Wars channel/broadcast. Jones alleged that the Sandy Hook school shooting never happened and was in fact perpetrated by “crisis actors” hired by gun-control advocates to stoke support for gun control.

     Jones spread this theory to drive viewers and listeners to his platforms so he could sell more advertisements at higher rates. He also used his TV, online, and radio platforms to sell his audience nutritional supplements. He would literally say things like, “I’m driving hard all the time to get the truth to the American people and that can be exhausting. But thankfully my line of nutritional supplements gives me the energy I need” (etc. etc. then ordering information would follow).

     So, what’s the recipe for a good conspiracy theory? Like baking a cake it’s important to get the right ingredients in the proper amounts. Get your mixing bowls ready for the key ingredients.

1. It must be a story about the existence of a vast, secret, highly-effective network designed to commit evil and dangerous deeds.
2. High stakes – the welfare of the nation or millions of people and/or cherished American values must be at risk.
3. An emotional topic is needed (e.g. Communism in the 1950s and 1960s, school shootings, the decline of the traditional American way of life, government plans to shrink and harm the white race, the secularization of the United States).
4. A big bad demon is a MUST – it’s often senior officials in government, senior corporate interests, rival politicians, or competing political parties.
5. Apocalyptic and horrible visions are needed to raise fears if the consequences of the “dangerous conspiracy” aren’t defeated.
6. A theory should seek to instill or heighten peoples’ fears and insecurities.
7. Entertainment value is critical: Lurid deeds, sex, fantastic sums of illegal money, glamour, and the justifiable downfall of evil, powerful people. Also, “discovery” of dark secrets in the lives of famous people.
8. The conspiracy theory must offer simple answers to complex questions or problems that defy easy explanations and timely solutions.
9. The conspiracy theory should be managed like a public relations campaign to shape and control peoples’ perceptions and to defend it against skeptics as time goes on.
10. A good theory also exploits existing societal tensions and fears.
11. VERY IMPORTANT: The theory must contain many correct facts and kernels of truth to draw people into the premise. Ideally, 80% – 90% of the information will be true. BUT, certain key facts and elements are made-up or misrepresented; this is the secret sauce of the theory.
12. VERY IMPORTANT: Inexplicable, odd or coincidental (though true and innocent) activities and comments are seized upon and tied into the conspiracy theory. “It’s an odd occurrence so no doubt sinister and thus proof of the conspiracy.” An infamous example of this was Alex Jones calling out the father of one of the Sandy Hook victims who was talking at a press conference about his young daughter and processing the shock of her death. He was emotional, struggling for words, and seemed confused about a couple of small details of the shooting. Jones seized upon this as “clear proof” that he was an actor, not a real father who’d lost his daughter, and therefore it wasn’t a real shooting.

     You now have the recipe for your perfect conspiracy theory, so who are your likely consumers? What kinds of characteristics, life experiences, and psychological realities make people more susceptible to embracing this kind of thinking? What makes up that list?

1. People who are unhappy or fearful about change – economic, demographic, political, social, religious or cultural.
2. Since much change in the U.S. involves demographic and ethnic factors, those with more nativist beliefs can be particularly susceptible to conspiracy theories that seemingly confirm their fears or beliefs.
3. Believers in these theories are often zealots – nothing will change their minds, even disconfirming facts. However, they ardently deny that they believe in conspiracies.
4. People who tend to believe these theories can be taken advantage of by charlatans who profit off their fear and anxiety.
5. People afflicted with anxiety are more likely to buy into these theories. Inducing anxiety or loss of control triggers some to see non – existent patterns and connections that can evoke conspiratorial thinking.
6. People with overblown or overactive fears can think the world is spiraling out of control (“Oh my God, there is crime everywhere! You can’t even walk down the street. Gangs control half of Los Angeles.”). Conspiracy theories offering simple, easy answers to complex situations can give these people comfort – give them a sense they have some control and understanding of their lives and are not powerless.
7. Conspiracy theories can resonate with angry, unhappy, struggling, and disenfranchised people who are troubled about their circumstances or how their life has gone or is going. Conspiracy theories can offer them a convenient scapegoat, shield them from harsh personal judgment or insights, and enhance their sense of victimhood.
8. Conspiracy theory consumers are more likely to be transcendental thinkers (they see connections between disparate things) rather than empirical thinkers (things aren’t connected, let’s see the evidence for this particular assertion or situation). Of course, all transcendental thinkers are not believers in conspiracies, and nor are all empirical thinkers immune from these thoughts.

     Now we also mustn’t forget that conspiracy theories can be fun for people to talk and speculate about. They literally can be a harmless distraction from the stresses of daily life. This is especially true of conspiracy ideas involving celebrities (e.g. Princess Diana didn’t die but instead went into hiding and changed her appearance. She is actually Taylor Swift’s biological mother but gave her up for adoption).

     In closing, I say enjoy your conspiracy theories up to a point. But always bear in mind that they are frequently used for nefarious and sinister purposes – ready to prey on those susceptible to them or on those who don’t think critically about them. (For example, did the Holocaust really not happen? Think how hard it would be to cover up the evidence of one of the most studied events in human history).

     For more information on these topics, just a few of the works in the field of conspiracy studies include the following.

• Rob Brotherton, Suspicious Minds: Why We Believe in Conspiracy Theories, 2017.
• Mark Fenster, Conspiracy Theories: Secrecy and Power in American Culture, 2008.
• Robert Alan Goldberg, Enemies Within: The Culture of Conspiracy in Modern America, 2001.
• Richard Hofstadter, The Paranoid Style in American Politics, 1964. (considered the foundational work in the field of conspiracy studies).
• Kathryn Olmstead, Real Enemies: Conspiracy Theories and American Democracy, World War I to 9/11, 10^th Anniversary Edition, 2019.
• Elizabeth Williamson, Sandy Hook: An American Tragedy and the Battle for Truth, 2022. (Winner of many non-fiction book awards in 2022.)